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Macro Fragility Tracker

Each indicator vs its own full history & the dot-com (1999–2000) extreme (purple) · 29.06.2026 11:08 · context layer, not a signal generator
▲ Stretch · %ileELEVATED
2040608010090
Valuation · Concentration · Froth
◈ Composite · %ileMODERATE
2040608010065
63 pts divergence
▼ Stress · %ileCALM
2040608010027
Credit spreads · Volatility
▲ Stretch · How Inflated
Valuation
Shiller CAPE · %ileRED
20406080100200099
abs: 40,70
2000: 44,20
Buffett (Mktcap/GDP %) · %ileRED
20406080100200098
abs: 134,52
2000: 151,70
Concentration
Equal-wt ÷ Cap-wt (RSP/SPY) · %ileRED
204060801003
abs: 0,29
from 2003
Top-10 S&P weight % · %ileRED
20406080100200093
abs: 35,87
2000: 24,20
Froth
FINRA margin debt ($B) · %ileRED
204060801002000100
abs: 1.416
2000: 300
AAII bull-bear spread % · %ileGREEN
20406080100200054
abs: 8,81
2000: 61,67
▼ Stress · Has It Broken
Credit / stress
IG credit spread (OAS, bp) · %ileGREEN
204060801008
abs: 76,00
from 2023
HY credit spread (OAS, bp) · %ileGREEN
2040608010014
abs: 278,00
from 2023
VIX · %ileAMBER
20406080100200057
abs: 18,89
2000: 33,49
MOVE (bond vol) · %ileGREEN
2040608010030
abs: 66,79
from 2002
◈ Regime · Cross-Asset Context
Real 10y yield % · %ileRED
2040608010090
abs: 2,19
from 2003
Yield curve 10y-2y % · %ileAMBER
20406080100200031
abs: 0,31
2000: -0,52
Stock-bond corr (gate ρ) · %ileRED
2040608010099
abs: 0,31
from 2003
Dollar index (DXY) · %ileRED
20406080100200082
abs: 101,31
2000: 118,50
Gold ($/oz) · %ileRED
20406080100200097
abs: 4.062
2000: 278
Bitcoin ($) · %ileRED
2040608010080
abs: 59.764
from 2014
◎ Informational
CBOE total put/call · %ileINFO
2040608010018
abs: 0,86
excl. composite
Red marker = worst dot-com-era reading.Colour = current percentile vs full history (red = stretched end). Trend arrow = 3-month change. Manual indicators update via --manual; FRED feeds run on your own network.