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Macro Fragility Tracker
Each indicator vs its own full history & the dot-com (1999–2000) extreme (purple) · 29.06.2026 11:08 · context layer, not a signal generator
▲ Stretch · %ileELEVATED
Valuation · Concentration · Froth
◈ Composite · %ileMODERATE
63 pts divergence
▼ Stress · %ileCALM
Credit spreads · Volatility
▲ Stretch · How Inflated
Valuation
Shiller CAPE · %ileRED
abs:40,70▲
2000: 44,20
Buffett (Mktcap/GDP %) · %ileRED
abs:134,52▲
2000: 151,70
Concentration
Equal-wt ÷ Cap-wt (RSP/SPY) · %ileRED
abs:0,29▼
from 2003
Top-10 S&P weight % · %ileRED
abs:35,87▼
2000: 24,20
Froth
FINRA margin debt ($B) · %ileRED
abs:1.416▲
2000: 300
AAII bull-bear spread % · %ileGREEN
abs:8,81▲
2000: 61,67
▼ Stress · Has It Broken
Credit / stress
IG credit spread (OAS, bp) · %ileGREEN
abs:76,00▼
from 2023
HY credit spread (OAS, bp) · %ileGREEN
abs:278,00▼
from 2023
VIX · %ileAMBER
abs:18,89▼
2000: 33,49
MOVE (bond vol) · %ileGREEN
abs:66,79▼
from 2002
◈ Regime · Cross-Asset Context
Real 10y yield % · %ileRED
abs:2,19▲
from 2003
Yield curve 10y-2y % · %ileAMBER
abs:0,31▼
2000: -0,52
Stock-bond corr (gate ρ) · %ileRED
abs:0,31▲
from 2003
Dollar index (DXY) · %ileRED
abs:101,31▲
2000: 118,50
Gold ($/oz) · %ileRED
abs:4.062▼
2000: 278
Bitcoin ($) · %ileRED
abs:59.764▼
from 2014
◎ Informational
CBOE total put/call · %ileINFO
abs:0,86▼
excl. composite
Red marker = worst dot-com-era reading.Colour = current percentile vs full history (red = stretched end). Trend arrow = 3-month change. Manual indicators update via --manual; FRED feeds run on your own network.